There’s been a real shift in the Brisbane property market this month. For the past two years the story has been tight stock and fierce competition, but that has changed as another interest rate rise and a federal budget aimed at negative gearing have prompted plenty of buyers to pause. For the first time in a while the balance has tipped back toward the buyer. Here’s my Brisbane property market May 2026 update: how I’m reading each price bracket and what it means if you’re looking to buy.
Brisbane Market Snapshot
The April figures from CoreLogic still show a strong market, with Brisbane dwelling values up 1.2% over the month and 19.7% over the year. The median dwelling now sits at around $1,116,000, houses at a median of about $1,223,000 and units at about $876,000. Units have run hardest of all, up 22.6% over the year as buyers priced out of houses keep moving across, while total listings remain down about 13.7% on a year ago and stock stays tight.
The important caveat is that those figures run only to the end of April, so they sit a month behind and predate the 12 May federal budget. They show where the market has been, not where it’s heading.
Two things have moved the picture since those figures were taken. The RBA lifted the cash rate to 4.35% in May, its third rise this year, though it signalled it now has room to pause. The budget then announced an end to negative gearing on established homes bought after 12 May 2026, taking effect from July 2027, with existing owners grandfathered and new builds exempt.
How’s the Market?
The answer depends a lot on which price point you’re looking at, because the market is behaving quite differently across the brackets right now.
In the entry market, roughly $850,000 to $1.5 million, owner-occupiers and first home buyers are still active and open homes are still busy, so the change here has come from the investor side. The investors who relied on negative gearing have largely stepped back while they digest the budget, though the investors I’ve helped buy in company structures have stayed put, since they were never claiming negative gearing against personal income in the first place. It’s not that investors have vanished, more that one particular type has paused for now.
The mid market, around $1.5 million to $2.5 million, has clearly softened. Buyers here are more selective and in less of a hurry. Homes that present well and are priced sensibly still sell, but the competition has thinned enough that buyers are comfortable walking away from anything that feels a stretch.
The prestige market remains measured, much as it has been for a while now, with buyers at the top end content to move only when the right home appears.
The one thing cutting across all three brackets is borrowing capacity. Several buyers I’ve spoken with recently have seen a real drop in what the bank will lend them, in one case a pull back of $200,000 to $300,000. Higher rates and tighter serviceability are behind it. If you haven’t had your finance reviewed lately, it’s worth doing that before you find a home you love.
A word of caution on new builds
One thing the budget has done is make new builds look more attractive on paper, because new builds keep their negative gearing treatment while established homes lose it. I’d be careful here though, because my real concern with new builds is what happens at resale. If you pay a premium for a brand new property partly because it can be negatively geared, the person who buys it from you in a few years is purchasing an established home, so they can’t. The tax benefit that helped justify your premium simply doesn’t carry across to them.
Buying brand new has always carried a premium, a bit like driving a new car out of the dealership. Some of the best buying I’ve seen over the years has been in homes built or renovated ten to fifteen years ago, where you get good space and a sensible fit-out without the new premium so many buyers chase. That same logic holds now more than ever.
On the Ground
My own work over the past month has been mostly with owner-occupiers, downsizers and first home buyers, which is no surprise with the investor side much quieter than it was. Recent purchases have been a real mix, which tells you there’s no single trend running through the market right now, just good buying available to people who come prepared.
Despite all the talk of a softer market, there are still solid numbers of people through the open homes across the inner west and greater Brisbane. Buyers are still very much out there and are simply taking their time, asking better questions and feeling far less pressure to commit on the spot, which is a healthy thing to see.
Until Next Time
My expectation is that the next month or two stays in the buyer’s favour while people wait to see how the budget settles in. Things can shift quickly though, so if a home that suits you well does come up, don’t let the noise talk you out of it.
If you’re thinking about buying or simply want to talk through what I’m seeing, I’m always happy to share my view.
Take care, Sam Price. Buyer’s Agent and Registered Property Valuer, Brisbane.